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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
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“If we just sold the data to Kalshi in order to list the markets but no one was coming in and placing liquidity, there’s no point in them listing the markets,” Monk said. “We also need to supply the data to the market makers to inform their models.”
Catalist initially received a list of fewer than 10 potential market makers from Kalshi. It has since completed agreements with close to 20 and is engaging with approximately another 20.
That growth reflects the expanding number and variety of sports contracts. ITF tennis is particularly dependent on official data because its more than 60,000 annual matches are not generally televised. Unofficially monitoring a tour moving between locations such as Bogotá and Bali would be difficult, Monk noted.
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The problem with time is that it always changes. There is never a way to stop the clock, no matter how much we wish it could happen. Ultimately, that means we all have to face new situations and challenges and prepare to be taken on new paths. However, each of those new paths is a chance to learn and grow, embracing all of the experience and knowledge that has been accumulated to forge a better future. It may be a little unnerving, not knowing which path to take and what the future may hold, but it has to be completely accepted for what it is – an opportunity that we have the ability to explore and nurture.
That’s where I am now, having accepted the fact that the CalvinAyre and CoinGeek chapters of my life are coming to a close. For the past three years, I have been part of a unique and incredible group that has worked tirelessly to spread the word on the gaming and cryptocurrency industries that we felt would provide a positive impact for our readers. I, like everyone else, have always endeavored to be consistent and factual with the words I put on virtual paper, even though I know, based on some of the emails I have received, that I have also ruffled a few feathers. At the end of the day, though, I can rest easy in the knowledge that I was always transparent and factual.
I would be lying if I said it’s going to be easy to accept this transition and to refocus my efforts elsewhere. However, I am eternally grateful for having been given this excellent opportunity and have enjoyed every aspect of being involved in the Calvin Ayre organization. What is coming next may still not be defined, but that’s what is going to make the next chapter exciting; it can bring essentially anything and everything. What I know, regardless of what happens next, is that I will continue to be who I am and will continue to provide the same level of professionalism and integrity that have brought me this far, and which are paramount for everyone involved with Calvin Ayre. I thank everyone at the organization for their undeniable commitment to excellence and thank all of our supporters and readers for allowing us to share with them our experiences and knowledge.