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With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.
Prediction market operators are on legal losing streaks, confirming that Beynon is onto something when he says the regulatory environment is the biggest risk facing the industry.
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Green MP Cate Faehrmann has criticised the arrangement, highlighting a conflict of interest where clubs reduce their tax liabilities while simultaneously cultivating community goodwill.
She called the proposed changes “tinkering around the edges”. She questioned whether ClubGRANTS genuinely supports community projects, or functions as an indirect subsidy that lessens scrutiny of gaming revenue.
“ClubGRANTS is what the clubs rely upon to push back against any reform. The fact is they’re not generous, they’re a rort.” A “rort” is an antipodean term denoting a trick, scam or fraudulent practice.
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Commissioners pointed to evidence suggesting the tribe may have already been overcharged compared to other member customers.
The Upper Sioux Community also argued that, as a sovereign tribal nation, it is not subject to Minnesota utility regulations. The commission declined to rule on the sovereignty question, concluding it was unnecessary to resolve that issue to determine that Minnesota Valley could not prevent the casino from generating its own power.
An attorney for Minnesota Valley told commissioners the cooperative plans to appeal the order.