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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

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I’m as excited about my own future as the future of poker itself and while I’m changing seats, I’ll be staying at the table.  

I’ve got chips in the game after all.  

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The US Federal Reserve raised the effective federal funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 3.75%-4% on Wednesday, representing its first rate hike in three years as the economy grapples with sticky inflation, record-high energy prices and rising bond rates with no end in sight to the ongoing war with Iran that kicked off in February.

Investors began 2026 expecting multiple rate cuts, which tend to juice capital markets and spur dealmaking activity. But on 28 February things changed quickly after joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran largely curtailed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital Middle East waterway where some 20% of the world’s oil transited before the conflict began.

Several factors weighed heavily on the decision to raise rates. The average nationwide gas price now is $4.36 compared to $3.18 a year ago, per AAA, and the average diesel price of $6.31 is a record. Brent crude oil has crested over $100 per barrel compared to about $68 a year ago. Inflation was 3.4% in August, compared to 2.9% last year. And US 10-, 20- and 30-year Treasuries have reached their highest rates in decades.