Aztec Gems

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With odds of 17% on Kalshi’s futures market, the Rams are the only NFL team to open the season with double-digit odds. The probability translates to +488 in American odds, a figure that is regarded as comparatively low for a Super Bowl favourite. But history is not on the Rams’ side – all of the last 25 NFL teams to open a season with futures odds of +500 or lower have failed to win the Super Bowl, according to Yahoo Sports.

In May, the NFL sent a letter to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission with a list of certain event contracts it deemed objectionable. By July, the league doubled down with public comments to the CFTC after the agency issued draft regulations for the contracts. The NFL cited props on player injuries, penalty totals and missed field goals as those that fit the bill. Goodell, however, conceded that the NFL has held discussions regarding prediction markets as public policy evolves.

Two other leagues, Major League Baseball and the National Hockey League, have each signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the CFTC that allows participating teams to partner with the operators.

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Harris Tsangarides, executive director of the Gaming & Casino Supervision Commission, said his department had noticed spikes in gambling activity coinciding with GMI payment dates, prompting the regulator to consider “technical solution” to cross-reference GMI beneficiary lists with casino membership records.

An issue raised by Giannis Vasiliadis, director of WBAS, was the limited access to recipients’ banking information. This limited data can hint at suspicious activity but cannot conclusively verify gambling transactions.

Data Protection Commissioner Maria Christofidou said her office had reevaluated a 2022 legal opinion and now recognised a potential legal basis for more granular access to banking information.

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His analogy is a poker table at which the weaker participants sustain the game. If those players disappear, the fourth-best professional at the table can suddenly become a loser because only the three strongest remain.

The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.

But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.